The Weather from Cairo to Cape Town
The weather is, of course, notoriously unpredictable. But for planning purposes, it’s useful to have some idea of what the weather conditions will probably be like - even if “average” weather is an oxymoron. So, to help us think about the most appropriate weather gear for our trip across Africa, we plotted data about average temperatures, rain probabilities and wind direction/speed based on the information available from Weather Spark. Let’s look at a few highlights from what we discovered…
Temperatures Will be Mild
We were pleased to confirm that the temperatures we’re likely to encounter will probably be pretty mild. Unlike the U.S. or Europe, where the average temperatures for parts of our rides dipped into the 30s F (appx. 2 C), the low temperatures for our route - based on a December departure - will probably stay above 45 F (7 C). That’s pleasant biking weather.
On the other hand, we will be crossing several true deserts, including the eastern Sahara (in Egypt and Sudan) and the Kalahari (in Botswana and Namibia). So we can expect daytime highs to climb up to near 90 F (32 C) in those areas. But, we’re not complaining. It could certainly have been a lot worse. We’ve timed our trip to hit the those areas during some of the cooler months. That will keep us from roasting too badly in the desert sun. And because the air is so dry, the desert nights should be comfortably cool.
This will also be our first cycling trip that includes a crossing of the Equator (in Kenya). So the overall temperature profile outside of the deserts will be pretty warm as well. That’s a huge change from our 2019 ride across Europe, where we had only a few weeks of true summer weather.
Average high and low temperatures along our planned cycling route. Cairo to Cape Town, 2020 (click on the graph to expand the image). Temperatures are based on travel from mid-December 2019 - October 2020. Data from Weather Spark, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2019).
It Will Be Either Bone Dry, or Really Wet
It looks like Africa will be a land of extremes when it comes to rain. For almost 3/4 of the ride, we can expect very, very dry conditions. The remainder of the days will almost certainly be really wet. We will be hitting Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda during their rainy season, when there’s a good chance that it will rain on any given day. Hopefully, the storms will be typical of tropical regions, and it will only rain for part of the day. We’ll need to be both mentally and physically ready to deal with muddy conditions in those countries.
Average probability of rain along our planned cycling route. Cairo to Cape Town, 2020 (click on the graph to enlarge the image). Based on travel from mid-December 2019 - October 2020. Data from Weather Spark, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2019).
We Can Expect Some Nice Tailwinds
For cyclists, nothing looms larger than concerns about the wind. A brisk tailwind will propel you along, helping the miles to fly by. On the other hand, a strong headwind doesn't just slow you down. If it lasts long enough, it can sap your enthusiasm for riding as well. Winds are a big deal,
Looking at the data, one thing that jumps out is that the wind speeds tend to be pretty high in the places we will be riding (gray bars in graph, below), with an average, peak wind speed of 19.8 km/hr (12.3 mph). Those are stiff winds for averages.
Fortunately, the wind will mostly be in our favor - or at least not working too hard against us. Throughout Egypt and Sudan, we are likely to have strong tailwinds out of the north (blue area in graph, below). Those will turn to easterly cross winds in Ethiopia, and as we make our way around Lake Victoria through Uganda and Rwanda. It’s only after we turn back east in Rwanda to head back towards Arusha, Tanzania, that we are likely to encounter sustained headwinds out of the east (green area in graph, below).
But before too long we’ll head back to the west in Zambia, where the dominance of easterly winds will offer us a boost from behind once again.
Towards the end of the ride, it’s a toss up, with the winds being possible from nearly any direction. There’s a slight prevalence of southerly winds (yellow area in graph, below), which could end up being a headwind as we make our last push to Cape Town. But, it’s just as likely in that region that the wind will be coming from another direction, and may even help us along. We’ll keep our fingers crossed.
Average probability of the wind direction (north/east/south/west), overlaid on the average, peak wind speed (km/hr) along our planned cycling route. Cairo to Cape Town 2020 (click on the graph to enlarge the image). Based on travel from mid-December 2019 - October 2020. Data from Weather Spark, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2019).
Overall, it seems like the weather conditions will probably be favorable, based on our seasons and direction of travel. We’re pretty happy about that.
